How Chainomics Calculates Indices and Risk Scores

Chainomics computes every proprietary index and risk score from authoritative primary sources — the same government and industry feeds professional analysts trust. This page documents the data philosophy, inputs, weighting formulas, update cadence, and source citations behind each index and scoring model. No black boxes, no invented data.

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Data Philosophy

Chainomics aggregates public data from US government agencies (BTS, USDA AMS, EIA, CBP, FMCSA), AIS vessel feeds, and social platforms (Reddit) and applies proprietary normalization and weighting to produce leading indicators — signals that tell you what is likely to happen, not just what already has. Every index recompute is logged and auditable. Formulas are published openly and historical values are never silently adjusted; corrections are versioned.

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Disruption Risk Score

The Disruption Risk Score is a 0–100 probability score assigned to each shipment, with a plain-English explanation of the primary risk driver. Inputs

• Origin and destination geocoding
• Active weather events along the route (RainViewer precipitation radar)
• Port congestion level at origin or destination port
• Border wait times for cross-border shipments (CBP real-time feeds)
• Carrier safety history (FMCSA BASIC scores and inspection records)
• Active labor actions and political disruption events on the corridor

Score interpretation Output: A probability score plus the primary risk driver described in plain English (for example, “Hurricane-force winds forecast on I-10 corridor near Houston through Thursday”).

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Proprietary Index Methodologies

MPAI — Maritime Port Activity Index

What it measures: Composite US port activity on a 0–100 scale. A score above 70 signals congestion risk.Data source: US Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) — Inside-the-Gate port metrics program.Components (9 BTS indicators):

• Loaded import and export vessel calls
• Containerized import and export TEU throughput
• Containership capacity utilization
• Vessel queue depth (ships at anchor waiting for berth)
• Container dwell time
• Berth utilization rate
• Rail-dray volume at terminal gates
• Container repositioning moves
• Additional BTS port productivity metrics

Normalization: Each indicator is min-max normalized against a 52-week rolling trimmed mean to remove seasonal patterns. The nine normalized values are averaged into a single 0–100 composite.Update cadence: Recomputed automatically on an hourly basis; the reference BTS data window refreshes weekly with each new BTS release.Interpretation: MPAI > 70 signals meaningful congestion risk. Use MPAI alongside real-time berth utilization and dwell time on the Port Congestion dashboard for the full picture.

PFPI — Produce Freight Pressure Index

What it measures: Predicted capacity tightening in produce-heavy freight corridors on a 0–100 scale. A PFPI rising above 65 typically precedes truckload spot-rate spikes by 5–10 days.Data source: USDA Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) — Specialty Crops shipping point reports; EIA weekly retail diesel survey.Weighting:

Component	Weight
Price velocity	40%
Volume acceleration	30%
Movement expectation	30%

How each component is computed:

• Price velocity measures the rate of change in reefer van spot rates relative to the trailing 30-day corridor average.
• Volume acceleration measures the week-over-week change in USDA AMS shipping point report volumes for major produce categories.
• Movement expectation aggregates USDA AMS forward-looking movement forecasts for perishable commodity flows on key corridors.

Normalization: Each component is normalized to 0–100 per corridor before weighting.Update cadence: Recomputed daily after USDA AMS and market rate updates are released.

CBPSI — Cross-Border Produce Surge Index

What it measures: Intensity of US-Mexico produce border-crossing activity on a 0–100 scale. A high CBPSI correlates with longer commercial vehicle wait times at the monitored gateways.Data source: US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) commercial land-port crossing data; USDA AMS Specialty Crops shipping point reports; BTS border crossing entry data.Gateways monitored:

• Nogales, AZ
• Pharr, TX
• Otay Mesa, CA

Weighting:

Component	Weight
Gateway volume	45%
Seasonal deviation	30%
Convergence count	25%

How each component is computed:

• Gateway volume is the z-scored southbound commercial truck crossing volume at each gateway relative to its historical distribution.
• Seasonal deviation measures the degree to which current crossing volumes deviate from the expected seasonal baseline for that calendar week.
• Convergence count measures how many gateways are simultaneously elevated above their seasonal norms — when all three surge together, pressure compounds.

Update cadence: Recomputed daily after CBP and USDA AMS daily data releases.

SSI — Social Sentiment Index

What it measures: Real-time logistics industry sentiment on a Bullish / Bearish / Neutral basis, aggregated twice daily from freight-focused Reddit communities. Sentiment shifts tracked by SSI often precede stock-price or operational news by 24–48 hours.Data source: Reddit public posts from:

• r/logistics
• r/Truckers
• r/freight
• r/supplychain

AI classification process: Each Reddit post is classified by Chainomics AI as Bullish, Bearish, or Neutral based on its content. Classifications are aggregated into percentage breakdowns per logistics company or topic area tracked.Output: Bullish %, Bearish %, and Neutral % for each tracked company or topic, displayed on the Social Sentiment dashboard with trend lines and company-level drill-downs.Update cadence: Twice daily — morning and afternoon runs.

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Live Data Sources

Diesel Price Data (EIA)

Source: US Energy Information Administration (EIA) Weekly Retail On-Highway Diesel Prices survey.Coverage: 50+ US regional markets, from Pacific to New England, including Gulf Coast, Midwest, Lower Atlantic, and Rocky Mountain breakdowns.Update cadence: Weekly — EIA releases updated diesel price data each Monday for the prior week.How Chainomics uses it: Regional diesel prices feed into the PFPI weighting (fuel-surcharge delta component), the Diesel Prices dashboard, and are factored into disruption risk scoring for fuel-cost sensitivity on long-haul lanes.

Border Wait Times (CBP)

Source: US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) real-time commercial vehicle crossing wait-time feeds.Coverage: 25 US-Mexico and US-Canada commercial crossings, including all three CBPSI gateways (Nogales, Pharr, Otay Mesa) plus major crossings such as Laredo, El Paso, Calexico, Detroit, and Buffalo.Update cadence: Near real-time — wait times are polled and displayed minute-by-minute.How Chainomics uses it: Border wait times feed directly into the Disruption Risk Score for cross-border shipments and into the CBPSI gateway volume component. The Border Wait Times dashboard displays current and historical wait trends per crossing.

Ocean Vessel Tracking (AIS)

Source: AIS (Automatic Identification System) public vessel broadcast feeds, aggregated across multiple maritime data providers.Coverage: All major North American maritime regions:

• Pacific Coast (including transpacific arrival zones)
• Gulf of Mexico
• East Coast (including major container port approaches)
• Canadian waters
• Mexican waters
• Great Lakes

What is tracked: Vessel position, speed, heading, destination, and ETA for commercial vessels over 300 gross tons.How Chainomics uses it: AIS data feeds the Ocean Shipping dashboard and Hermes View 3D globe, contributes to MPAI dwell-time and berth-utilization calculations, and powers vessel-level tracking on shipment detail views.

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Editorial Standards

• Every index recompute is logged and fully auditable.
• Formulas are published openly. Historical index values are never adjusted silently — corrections are version-stamped.
• All third-party data ingested by Chainomics is sourced from authoritative primary feeds. Chainomics normalizes values for display but does not paywall, alter, or re-license raw figures.
• Primary government sources (FMCSA, BTS, EIA, USDA, CBP) are cited with direct outbound links on every platform page that uses them.
• Index methodology changes are documented in the platform changelog before taking effect.